Nothing is more important today than creating a Europe of defense at a forced march. This will require Europeans to have total autonomy in their security resources, with many more weapons designed and built in Europe, and with absolute coordination of national strategies.
This does not mean giving up everything else. On the contrary: the war economy means accelerating all the necessary reforms, if we do not want to have to spend much more on the day after tomorrow to defend ourselves on other fronts.
In particular, we must accelerate the climate transition, a potential source of great violence; and to do so, we must forcefully organize the transition from the economy of death (everything that uses fossil fuels and industrial food) to the economy of life (which includes the security and defense sectors).
We must also take note of the current geopolitical change and draw the consequences: Faced with the American abandonment, which had been brewing for a long time, the European Union must seek new allies and new partners; it must first strengthen its ties with all the other democracies in the world; in Europe (Great Britain and Ukraine) in Asia (Japan, Korea, India, Indonesia, Philippines), in Oceania (Australia and New Zealand), in North America (Canada), Central America (Mexico) and South America (Brazil and many others). It must also forge increasingly close ties with the Middle East, which brings together immense emerging powers.
Last but not least, Europe must turn to Africa. Think about it. Africa today has three times the population of the European Union. In 2040, it will have the largest working population in the world; in 2050, the continent will have 2.5 billion inhabitants; and, by the end of the century, 3.8 billion people will be living there, at the current rate, including 500 million in a single megalopolis, stretching from Lagos to Abidjan.
It doesn’t take much effort to understand what will happen in these countries, when huge rural migrations transform many cities into megalopolises of more than ten million people, on coasts increasingly threatened by the consequences of global warming. And to assess the new threats that would then weigh on Europe, if it were to face a continent in chaos.
It is therefore urgent for Europeans not to let China, Russia and Iran fill the void left by the gradual withdrawal of American aid, by their withdrawal from the WHO and by the customs duties they have just imposed on steel and aluminum (which particularly penalize South Africa, Nigeria and Egypt). Beijing (which already controls more than 100 African ports) will try to take advantage of this, even though China failed miserably in Kenya with the abandonment of the Mombasa-Nairobi railway. Moscow, despite the war in Ukraine, has set out to extend its influence in Niger, the Central African Republic and Libya. Iran is strengthening its ties with the Nigerien junta for uranium and supplying drones to Sudanese forces, while Abu Dhabi is aligning itself with Russia in Sudan. If we let it happen, all this will one day open a new front for Europe in Africa.
To avoid this, Europe will have to dare to display a bold policy, with the support of its new geopolitical partners, as mentioned above:
- Offer Africa a fairer trade framework, support for the rule of law, technology transfers and support for its industrialization. What this will cost us in development aid will be quickly repaid by the trade that will result.
- Help to massively improve the agricultural productivity of these countries, to avoid the looming famines and slow down rural and international migration.
- Develop transport infrastructure and trade between African countries: only 17% of the continent’s exports are currently intra-African. Such development will also be essential to combat the temptation of exile.
- In cooperation with African actors, hospitals and universities, and major resources to train and care for hundreds of millions, if not billions, of people at a distance, with AI, who would otherwise have access to neither education nor basic care, which would push them into the arms of radical movements.
- Promote, in partnership between African and European companies, a major program to build new cities at a distance from the coast, as some countries are beginning to consider, in anticipation of rising sea levels.
- Develop a major corridor transporting raw materials, energy, data and hydrogen between African countries and connecting Africa to Europe, starting with Morocco and then other countries in the Maghreb, when possible.
- Help set up a major cooperation program between African diasporas in Europe and their countries of origin. Everyone has something to gain.
All this may seem out of reach. It is not. And it is vital for Europe. In particular for its defense.
Let us face the obvious: the war economy must not be financed by savings on the ecological transition or on cooperation with the countries of the South. Otherwise, these countries will become time bombs against us. And we will not have the means for defense on all these fronts. Cooperation with the South is part of our defense. Nothing is more justified here than what I call self-interested altruism: it is in our vital interest to be altruistic.