Very few countries have a potential as enormous as Iran: a quadrimillennium
civilization , a major presence in all areas of art and science, a
magnificent country, through its landscape and monuments: he who has never
wandered in the streets, the caravanserais, and the Isfahan Mosques does not
know what mystical beauty is; a huge population (70 millions) and in strong
growth; a very exceptional level of education; enormous reserves of energy
(the fourth world producer of crude oil, 138 billion barrels of oil
reserves), the second world reserves of gas (that is 28.000 billions of m3)
and the largest uranium mines in the Middle East representing the equivalent
of 43 billion barrels of oil; very little debt (just 20% of GDP) and
substantial foreign exchange reserves (40 billion dollars); finally, a
unique geographicl position, between Turkey and Central Asia, between
Russia and the Indian world, to which Iran will provide gas which this
sub-continent will need.
And nevertheless, despite these tremendous assets, the country is in ruins:
More than 20% of Iranian men and over 40% of Iranian women are unemployed,
80 % of the unemployed are young people; a society ruined by inflation (over
30 %), which survives only through oil (which represents more than two
thirds of its budget revenues and exports), which must import 40% of its
gasoline, due to lack of refineries, and that could no longer have oil to
export before 2020.
Faced with these difficulties this society, today dominated by religious
figures, rural and old people, has chosen, like others before it, a forward
retreat, preparing what its leaders call, quite clearly, “a world without
Israel and the United States,” wiping the first one off the map with the
nuclear weapon and the second by refusing to use the dollar as oil payment
currency.
Faced with this nightmare, it is normal to see the rebellion of this
magnificent Iranian youth. Who is going to help them? Nobody, probably. No
one, even before the Second world war, has ever tried to prevent tyrants to
take action. And since then, the Western world, champion of freedom, had never
intervened to free a people: neither in Poland, nor in Hungary, nor in
Czechoslovakia, nor in Chile. Nowhere. And if the Soviet bloc collapsed, in
1989, the Western world had nothing to do with it. Similarly, we no longer believe
that GW Bush attacked Saddam Hussein to free the Iraqis.
If nothing is done to help Teheran rebels to overthrow the Guide and
establish a new authority, separating religion and politics in the interests
of religion, the country will sink into dictatorship, the reformists will
sink into bitterness, and turn against the Western world. And, we need Iran: it is
the key to global growth, obligatory passage point between the dynamics of
Asia, the energy of the Middle East, and the technologies of Europe.
What can we do? The opening, like in Chile? The boycott, like in Cuba? The
war, like in Iraq? The three, without doubt, but in a precise order, also to
clearly announce to Iranian leaders like they do with their objectives of
destruction. First, make every effort to provide the youth of Iran with means
to travel abroad to receive informations and to resist, while respecting the
autonomy of their fight. Simultaneously, deprive the dictators of the
resources needed for their oppression: a real diplomatic, economic and
political boycott. Finally, if and only if the tyrants reach their goals and
are getting near the possession of a weapon which it is clear that they will
use, end their dictatorship, before it destroys our civilizations.