The landscape in which the French presidential elections will take place is becoming a bit clearer; It is time for the candidates to take this into account.
Four major challenges, to mention only them, will arise in the next two years and will have a significant impact on the margins of manoeuvre available to the next French president.
1. Throughout the world, a major economic slowdown has begun. The speed of merchant ships is slowing down on all seas. The Baltic Dry Index, an excellent barometer of world trade just fell back in the region of the year 2002 and is now approaching its lowest level attained in late 2008. Growth is slowing down in China, India, Brazil, and Africa. Even the most promising countries in the world will find it difficult to create enough jobs for their youth. Europe will enter into recession. In total, the average global growth will not reach 3%, the lowest levels – except in 2009 – over a period of ten years and more. For France, this means that our exports will be even more difficult. It also means that we will have to choose quickly between a temporary lifesaving protectionism and a grand plan to restart the world economic machine.
2. In Europe, despite the massive, historical intervention of the ECB, which will give the false impression that the grip is easing, the situation of public debt in most countries will soon become untenable: in order to reduce it, austerity plans are required, and their simultaneity would only worsen the recession, reducing tax revenues and increasing social spending. We must therefore choose between the federal resources to engage in major projects or abandon the euro. Between a democratic federalism, or the collapse of the only current tool, a federal one, the Central Bank.
3. In the United States, after the euphoria caused by the amount of money poured into pre-election year, it will be understood that no matter who wins in November, the country will experience great difficulties. If Obama is reelected, he will not have a majority in the two chambers of Congress and will not be able to raise enough taxes to curb the exponential growth of public debt. And if he is defeated, his Republican successor will be bound to his obligations of tax reduction. In both cases, the dollar will collapse, which will further jeopardize growth in Europe, and, in particular, French exports. What can be done to force the Americans to be at least as rigorous as they claim to want to convince the Europeans they should be?
4. Finally, in the Muslim world, enormous choices are needed: Egypt has only three months of resources left in order to import what it needs before the collapse of its economy. Tunisia is not doing any better. Syria remains a place of martyrdom. In Iran, the stubborn pursuit of their nuclear program makes the use of military intervention more likely before or after the U.S. presidential elections. What are they supposed to do about each of these situations? Wash their hands or respond? And with what means?
On all this, we are still waiting for the candidates to express their views.