If there is a constant in the last 30 years in France, it is indeed the
defeat in the main election of the winner of the intermediate election.
Thus, when the left or right-wing wins legislative and regional elections,
it loses the next presidential election.
Today, as in 2004, the left-wing won massively the regional elections. So as
in 2012, and in 2007, it should lose the presidential elections.
Certainly, circumstances are very different, and everything seems, this time
to play in favor of the left-wing: its victory in the regional elections is
even stronger than during the previous consultation; the presidential
election of 2007 opposed two candidates for whom it was a baptism of fire,
while it will be in 2012 about the re-election of an outgoing president,
where public opinion seems to reject the very hypothesis of a second term;
finally, an economic and financial crisis of major scale has gone through
there; and we have never seen reelected a majority, or a president, taking
the responsibility for the management of a period during which unemployment
increased.
Everything seems so play in favor of a victory of the left-wing in the next
presidential elections.
Still it should be able to overcome five obstacles, if possible in this
order:
1. Choose a candidate able not only to win but to manage the country. And if
possible choose him as soon as possible, to give him time to train his team
and go out of improvisation in preparation for the conduct of the
Government.
2. Make a honest analysis of the situation. Today, hearing representatives
of the left-wing, we feel, at least publicly, that they do not realize
either the seriousness of the situation of the country or the fact that it
is not just the fruit of the right-wing policies, but indeed the result of a
major crisis: he who will manage the country between 2012 and 2017 will be
confronted with a country tired, with an asanguineous budget, high
unemployment, very low growth, with the obligation to reduce the deficit and
fund future expenses. There will be no room for demagoguery.
3. Succeed in the game of alliances: victory is indeed possible only if all
the left-wing and a large part of the center contributes to it, so everyone
will find in the presidential strategy, elements of his vision.
4. Provide a credible program, which cannot be summarized by showering
electorally paid categories, but that should help improve the
competitiveness of the country, the training of those who work, social
justice, without questioning either the requirements of the environment or
those of the European construction, so vital for our future.
5. Finally, convince the country facing an outgoing president who will be
able to exploit perfectly the weaknesses of the left-wing on the four
previous points, this will not be simple: candidate Sarkozy has shown he was
formidable. The outgoing president, crowned with a success of the G20 which
will be held in Paris a few months before the elections, (we can only wish
it in the interest of France) will be for any candidate whatsoever, an
opponent of very high caliber.