This is the moment of truth. For at least 70 years, the idea of a common defense has been at the heart of the question of Europe’s future: we all know that there will be no real union of European nations if they are unable to put in place a common defense policy. Such a policy would jeopardize the strategic independence of each of these countries, and force their manufacturers to work together. So far, this has not been possible. Too many forces have opposed it.
Yet it was through defense that Europeans began trying to unite in the early 50s, with the incredibly bold project of the EDC (European Defense Confederation), which failed when the victors of 1945 refused to unite with the vanquished. Since then, we’ve taken a different path, constantly postponing the resumption of the common defense project, counting on American protection. Until 1984 and the first attempts at a Franco-German brigade, quickly forgotten when the fall of the Berlin Wall led many to believe that defense was no longer an important issue. At the same time, the failure of the European fighter aircraft project showed that the continent’s industrialists were incapable of uniting, providing their governments with strategic rationales for maintaining their national workloads. Since then, the commercial success of the Rafale in France has strengthened those who defended this thesis, while the Americans were busy getting everyone else to buy their weapons systems.
Over the last 40 years, nothing has changed, even though everyone in the military staffs has known, at least since the start of the Obama presidency, that, whatever happens, the Americans will no longer guarantee Europeans’ security; military spending has continued to be cut, and everyone has used their shrinking budgets to simply support their domestic industry and gorge themselves on American equipment, agreeing to use it only with the express agreement of the White House. Today, total military spending by Europeans (including the UK) is less than half that of the USA.
History will therefore record that, since 1990, Europe’s leaders have behaved with great recklessness, preferring to spend fortunes to maintain outdated agricultural models, mismatched defense industries and abysmal budget deficits, thus paving the way for Europe’s triple vassalization (by the USA, Russia and China), a loss of sovereignty and, ultimately, a collapse in its standard of living.
Recent statements by the US President and Vice President give us one more chance to react and escape this disgrace: they have both made it clear that they will no longer defend us, that no American soldier will risk his life on European soil, and that it is up to us to finance our own protection. Their contempt has gone so far as to start negotiating peace in Ukraine with the Russians, without the Ukrainians or other Europeans.
So we’re on our own. In the face of all threats, from the East, the South, and perhaps even the West. We have three choices:
- Continue not to equip ourselves with the means to defend ourselves; one day, we’ll be invaded, as Ukraine was, by a Russia that will have realized it has nothing to fear.
- Massively increase our military budgets, while maintaining our own purchasing strategies and industrial policies, and buying the bulk of our armaments from American or national firms. If we do this, we’ll be tied hand and foot to America, which won’t defend us, will vassalize us and won’t rest until it destroys the European Union.
- Massively increase our military budgets by developing common strategies, leaving NATO, which has become meaningless, and creating a truly integrated defense industry. This would require radical changes, which can only be decided by politicians. Industrialists will oppose it.
If we succeeded in doing so, if the Union and Great Britain devoted 5% of their GDP to defense, they would spend more than the United States (1110 billion dollars versus 824 billion dollars). Europe would then be the world’s leading military power; it would have nothing to fear from a Russia incapable of defeating the Ukraine. It would be in an excellent position to forge balanced agreements with the United States, Russia, China and India. It could face up to the ecological, cultural and demographic challenges of the future, and in particular help Africa to develop, so as not to be invaded by it. To achieve this, politicians will have to convince their industrialists to work together, and make the necessary budgetary savings elsewhere.
This presupposes clear-sighted and firm political leaders, capable of resisting the nationalist temptations of their extreme right, the pacifism of their extreme left, the conservatism of their industrialists and the fears of their trade unions. Our enemies can rest easy: such leaders do not exist.