Few serious comparisons have been made between the fall, apparently successful, of the dictatorships in Eastern Europe and the countless failures of the Arab Springs. In principle one might have hoped to see the same results: in these two parts of the world, tyrannies have collapsed, with everyone’s blessings, and all countries concerned later received aid on a large scale from the West.
Arab dictatorships could consequently, like the Communist regimes in the countries of Eastern Europe, have been replaced quickly by democratic governments. In reality it has not happened: Tunisia is paralyzed, Libya is divided into autonomous provinces recognizing no authority other than tribal, Egypt is being subjected to a blood bath, Iraq and Afghanistan appear to be moving towards a return to chaos; finally, the future of Syria looks very bleak, between a crackdown of the uprising by Assad’s army and the partition of the country into several emirates, including several being dominated by radical Islam.
Why does such a difference exist?
First we must take the successes in Eastern Europe with a certain degree of caution. Certainly, the countries closest to the European Union, such as Poland, the Czech Republic, the Baltic States, Slovenia, Croatia and a few others, have become democracies and integrated European institutions. However, many other nations are still dominated by extremist parties there, such as Hungary, or subjected to big corruption, such as Bulgaria, or faced with the breakdown of the State, such as Romania. Still others, like most of the republics of the former USSR, are still ruled in totalitarian fashion by former leaders of the Soviet Communist Party or their relatives. Still others have become mired down in long civil wars such as Serbia and Kosovo.
The lesson is clear: democracy requires more than transparent elections. There is also a need for the acceptance of the rule of law, political parties, intermediate bodies, a free press and the possibility to live without fear. The geographic proximity of stable countries is also an essential dimension of the strength of democracy.
The responsibility for the failure of the Arab springs therefore must be found first in the States where the revolutions occurred. Revolutions happened there before an intellectual and administrative elite was formed. In addition, many of the citizens concerned saw in Islam a specific answer to their fight against dictatorship, whereas no religious solution has come to interfere with the Westernization of Eastern Europe.
Furthermore, the Arab countries refuse to hold dialogue with their sole modern neighbor, Israel. Moreover, the West was not up to the challenge: a catastrophic management of the occupation of Iraq and Afghanistan; assistance at the wrong time in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya; no massive and concerted action in the region. When within a couple of weeks, in the Fall of 1989, had been created a specialized bank, the EBRD, joint ownership of Eastern and Western countries, to help the transition of Eastern countries to democracy embodied by Western countries, the Western states have failed to do as much for the Arab nations; to the extent that in the end the same EBRD has been tasked with this responsibility, thus losing its identity as a European institution without gaining the necessary credibility and legitimacy to take care of its new « clients ». Today, the Arab Springs have got off to a very bad start. A long-term chaos in the region, which will make us regret the stability of past dictatorships, is likely.
So what, then, can be done? Support lay movements everywhere. Loud and clear. Oppose all forms of obscurantism, hostility towards human rights and women’s rights, regardless of where they are in motion. With no complex. Being prepared to fight Islamic terrorist regimes that could set up. Accept that it is going to take a long time, perhaps decades or a century, as was the case in France, for the fall of a totalitarian regime to result finally in democracy.
In the meantime, maintaining the pristine qualities of our values, at home and in international relations, remains the best service we can render to the brave democrats of these countries.