One must be in denial, like all too many political leaders have been, not to see that something major is going to happen in Europe, in the coming months: Either one of the multiple Damocles swords hanging in the sky of history will fall on our heads:
The various terrorist movements operating in the Middle East where they train their emulators, could trigger in our continent the terrorist attacks they threatened us with.
The Ebola epidemic in West Africa could establish itself as an epidemic of major proportions and ultimately reach Europe with a significant impact, leading to significant deceleration in many other forms of exchange.
The political and financial situation in China, increasingly unstable, could lead to a major economic crisis there, with a considerable impact on the global economy and particularly in Europe.
The United States’ headlong flight into debt and printing money, only to achieve a meager growth rate, may fail to save a totally unbalanced financial system, with here also skyrocketing consequences for Europe.
To put it more directly, the overall situation in Europe, sinking into deflation, makes a bankruptcy scenario of one of the European States unable to pay back its debt, and not the least, a likely outcome. And the anger of the Germans, faced with the sliding of others, could lead this country to be the first to leave the Eurozone.
Furthermore, the expected ruling of the European Court of Justice, on the bold solidarity mechanisms created by Mario Draghi, if they were declared contrary to European treaties, would cause the resignation of the President of the ECB and a collapse of the euro.
More specifically, France, whose budget deficit is now out of control and where reforms are slow to come, could be attacked by the market and in turn become insolvent.
At least one of these threats is likely to materialize in the next eighteen months. Everyone suspects it and gets ready for it, each in his own way. Particularly in France. And for that, two approaches are possible:
The first, more frequent and most likely, is a consequence of the fear of others; leading to the closure of borders, seeking refuge in isolationism, the rejection of what’s new and of others, thus with the illusion of escaping the chaos of the world. It will lead to another shock, by giving power in France to the National Front, in one or two regions in the next elections in June; and as they will not improve the quality of life for Northerners or Provencal people, they will explain that they can do nothing but to rule the whole of France, scenario more probable each passing day. For the greatest misfortune of the country, because all the insignificant barriers that a government of fear would set up would soon be swept away by the coming tsunami.
The second attitude is to anticipate these risks, understand that fear is a bad advisor, that seeking refuge in isolationism will not be an answer, that the rejection of others is suicidal, that the future wealth of France will depend on keeping debt under control, fostering innovation and vocational training, successfully integrating those wanting to join the country; that Europe can and must be organized urgently so as to give it the means to resist these crises, take the necessary means to invest, by lowering the euro and extending joint effective monitoring of the borders.
Not being afraid of one’s enemies, this is the real secret of the future. This is the secret of happy peoples.
j@attali.com
