A new ideological and geostrategic discourse is appearing in the American political, economic and military ruling circles. Faced with the rise of Chinese power, which will soon become, inevitably, the world’s largest economic power, in terms of production, we are now hearing a new speech in Washington: the world’s most powerful country, for at least the next two decades, will not be China, but the group composed of the United States, Canada, and Mexico.
This group, they argue, should be regarded as a single country: the economic integration, which began with the introduction of NAFTA, is now well advanced. The three countries have the same ideology, a common interest for matters with defense implications and cooperate closely on all fronts, economic, cultural and military. Mexico has become a modern country where the rule of law is respected, as in the other two countries. Mexico and Canada become Americanized at high speed, and economic and cultural integration is significant.
This scenario is not implausible. This group is indeed the world’s greatest power and will be for a long time to come: a current total population of 470 million people, which will be 540 million in 2030. A combined GDP of 19 trillion USD, which will be at least 25 billion by 2018. In both cases, much higher than that of China.
The United States, who sees itself naturally as the leader of this coalition, would thus delay, like the Roman Empire, the time of its decline. The whole of the American strategy will therefore focus on the success of this economic integration, to supplement it with a political integration, by taking drastic action. And this integration could be easier to achieve than the one now being attempted by the members of the European Union: the Americans are just three, with a dominant power, that can try and prescribe laws.
This would have significant geostrategic consequences. Dominance of North America over South America, and over Europe, that does not measure, for example, the practical implications of such a union on the trade talks which began with the United States alone.
However, there are numerous barriers: first, because the dissimilar standards of living between the United States and Mexico are enormous: Mexico’s GDP is lower than that of Canada, with four times the population. Population dynamics are also very different: the median age is 38 years in the United States and Canada, and 26 in Mexico, and in 2030 it will be 40 years in the USA and 33 years in Mexico. In addition, much of the economic integration of these countries is criminal: two-thirds of marijuana consumed in the United States is thought to be imported from Mexico. 95% of cocaine entering the US is thought to come from Mexico. In total drug use in the United States is thought to turn over $30 billion annually in the hands of Mexican cartels, which feed a real parallel economy representing more than 3% of Mexico’s GDP. With extreme deadly consequences: the violence had reportedly resulted in 100,000 deaths and missing in the last six years. This will undoubtedly be an excuse to pool and share their considerable military assets.
In addition, Mexicans and Canadians are very concerned about their independence, ever since their creation, and have no reason to accept to call it into question. Neither francophones nor Spanish speakers will accept the dominance of anglophones. They are far from accepting the dollarization of their economies.
Unless, by a turn of history, the United States become Mexicans: in 2050, the United States should be the first Spanish-speaking country in the world; the Hispanic population will then represent 30% of the population (132 million people against 52 million (17% of the population) today) and it will then represent two-thirds of the population of NAFTA. Therefore this alliance could be, in the end, for present United States, a fool’s bargain. As was the case for so many empires before them.
So today we have a race between two groups striving towards political integration. We need to act promptly. And not to abandon the Francophone communities in North America, more important than ever.