As the Oslo Accords celebrate its 20th anniversary (which allowed the assumption that through direct negotiation between Palestinians and Israelis this could lead to the creation of a viable Palestinian State, and to the recognition of the State of Israel by the Arab states, within secure borders), the negotiations which resume today between a government of Israel more radical than ever, and a Palestinian government, more feeble than ever, seem doomed to failure once more, in this Middle East set on fire, where civil war is found in all neighboring countries of Israel, except in Jordan.
On both sides the eternal continuation of negotiation is welcome, because it gives to each government and each elite legitimacy. However it does not last and the status quo is impossible: many Palestinians leave their land or become more radical, while many Israelis have the illusion to believe that through the construction of settlements almost everywhere (with already more than half a million Israelis living beyond the 1967 Green Line), they will make the creation of a Palestinian State impossible, and will even make, for some, Israel into a theocracy, where Jews alone would have the right to citizenship.
For some the temptation of messianism is becoming stronger. For others, it is that of radicalism; because by making it impossible to create a viable Palestinian State, the Israelis will lead gradually the Palestinians to go back to their claim made in 1947: two peoples within a single State.
At the end of last Ramadan, Israel elegantly opened its borders to the inhabitants of the West Bank, and thousands rushed to the Israeli beaches; without the slightest incident. Some Israelis saw there the beginnings of a true peaceful coexistence. But for many Palestinians, on the contrary, it strengthened an old theory that they do not necessarily need an autonomous State, and that they just have to become the majority in the one that drives them into marginalization.
Recently the Palestinian population, together with the Israeli Arabs, have exceeded the number of Israeli Jews (6.1 out of 12 million). This will only lead to further imbalance. One day the Israelis will have but one destiny: that of being dominated demographically, then militarily, within a single State, that will be, at best, secular and multi-religious; at worst, most likely, Islamic. Then they will disappear into a « Palestinisation » of Israel, that they will have to leave then, by will or by force.
Unless in order to win the demographic battle, still another alternative, the Israelis radically alter their definition of those to whom they apply their « Law of Return »; and open it for the millions of men and women who, without any filiation, might want to convert to Judaism; as they did it 20 years ago with those, Jews or those who claim to be Jews, coming from the former Soviet Union. Then they will install them into new settlements, driving out the Palestinian inhabitants. This would then be the
« Israelification » of Palestine.
The juxtaposition of two viable States, the Palestinisation of Israel, the Israelification of Palestine. Three scenarios that appear today unlikely. And yet, one of them will come true. Today the second scenario is by far the most likely.