Can it be reasonably expected that after so many failures, another international climate conference held in Paris next November, will meet the challenge of global warming? As a matter of fact, this is getting off to a very bad start.
First, there is no consensus on the mechanisms involved: For some, the cause is primarily the sun and there is nothing we can do to change it. For others, human activity is the cause of the problem, and in particular emission of greenhouse gases; and there is much that can be done there. Lastly, for others, there has been no further increase in global temperature for more than 10 years, the worst is over and there is no need to worry about it.
Secondly, there is no consensus either on the need to avoid warming, if it happens: For some, climate change should not serve as an excuse to slow down economic growth, because growth is more urgent today than at any other time in order to fight poverty and political disorder; even more so, it would make a great change because very large areas which are now frozen would be rendered available for cultivation and living, in Canada and in Russia. On the contrary, for others, slowing down global warming is fundamental because it constitutes a threat to life itself: A global average temperature increase of 2°C (3.6°F) would result in a very significant increase in the frequency and intensity of cyclones, floods and droughts and it would lead to the extinction of 20 to 30% of all plant and animal species.
So, what to expect for COP 21? According to current diplomats and negotiators, a decision is required to voluntarily discontinue extracting 80 per cent of known coal, half of the gas and one third of world oil, through authoritarian rationing measures or a tax on CO2 emissions. Achieving such an objective is a total illusion and we must stop pretending otherwise: No one would ever accept to keep under his feet such a wealth of energy resources without ever using them.
Yet, on current trends this conference will produce at best a moralizing, brief and vague report promising to reduce significantly CO2 emissions by 2050, by which time all the negotiators will be long retired, to say the least. With maybe at best, in the annex, a small funding for innovations.
In order really to succeed, COP 21 must right now totally change its objective and negotiating mode. It must become a conference to launch a global positive economy, i.e. an economy to serve future generations. As the country taking over the COP Presidency, France must clearly state right now that its objective will not be to negotiate standards or quotas, completely unrealistic. But rather to guide businesses and consumers through new ways of producing and consuming. And for this, bring together massive financing for very concrete proposals – so that, for example, car and air transport would shift towards electrical energy sources from nuclear power; organizing the long-distance transportation of the solar-generated energy before dusk in Greece to Germany and the Middle East to India; encouraging the development of energy-saving technologies and substituting information for energy, (such as the 3D printer and collaborative economy). In other words, more generally, understanding that altruism is the most effective manner for tackling CO2 emissions.
Even more important, as the country taking over the COP Presidency, France should have right now the courage to anticipate and move past its failure, note that it is unlikely that it will be able to enforce reduction in global CO2 emissions and assist in the development of CO2 capture techniques: Converting it into carbonate, by reaction with a basic solution; growing forests on land and phytoplankton in the sea, both being CO2 absorbers through photosynthesis. And even more, to dare to imagine how to reflect the sun’s rays in order to prevent them from contributing to global warming, by modifying the reflectivity of Earth surfaces, sending mirrors into space and spraying sea-salt particles into marine clouds in order to make them brighter.
Beautiful projects, if we dare to move from a punitive ecology to a positive economy.
j@attali.com
