Strange year than the one that is ending. A priori, one year full of
difficulties and failures: : the global economic crisis has deepened both in
terms of public debt and unemployment, even if financial markets have caught
up with part of their downfall. Blazing international meetings did not
succeed in setting up the slightest beginning of world governance: two
meetings of the G20 for nothing, except to announce measures without real
impact on the crisis (tax havens, bonus for traders), a Copenhagen Summit
very disappointing at the very least. European elections were held in the
general indifference and without project. Iran continued shamelessly its
march towards nuclear weapon and the repression of democracy, under the
helpless and distressed eyes of the rest of the world.
Moreover, 2009 carried many threats: central banks, even the FED, are
threatened in their solvency. Currencies, even the euro, are more and more
fragile. Sovereign funds, even that of Abu Dhabi, are in danger. Greece,
Spain, Great Britain, are at risk of bankruptcy after Iceland. 2010 will
certainly also witness the intensification of the process of regional and
identity fallback with the creation in India, of a new State, Telengana,
which could lead to separatist demands from other regions of India. In
Europe, the Catalans, who just went through an enthusiastic vote, although
unconstitutional, in favor of the independence of their province, could
question the unity of Spain. In Scotland with a majority from the labor
party, independence is also an option very feasible in the short or medium
term, especially if the Conservatives win the general election this spring.
Besides, other threats are coming: the IAEA announces a peak in oil
production within the next twelve months. This will also accelerate the
emergence of a triptych of power between Russia, India and China, three
nuclear powers, who control most of the gas and the dynamics of world
growth, from which Europe is excluded. Various conflicts are possible, to
prevent Iran from continuing the military enrichment of its uranium or to
stop the dictatorial regime of North Korea, who holds the nuclear weapon.
And many other threats are becoming clearer, in Pakistan, and elsewhere,
with anger movements which the crisis will not fail to create.
And yet, I can’t help but watch the months ahead with optimism: the economic
revival in areas where live more of the three quarter of humanity. The
ratification of the Lisbon Treaty and the appointment of a President and a
Minister in charge of the Foreign relations give, in spite of all the
doubts, a new strength to the European ideal. The U.S. military should leave
the Iraqi soil in 2010. In Iran, the movement of protest could destabilize
the regime, who is more and more isolated in the Muslim world. Last but not
least, there has been in this year apparently so dark, tremendous technical
progress, magnificent works of art, sublime proofs of solidarity, altruism
and love.