I have talked about America’s relative decline in its power for a long time, and it is fascinating to observe its recent acceleration.
Certainly, we cannot be blinded by the triumphant statistics of the American economy in recent months; be that as it may, where real unemployment is double the official figure, as Federal Reserve Chair herself has acknowledged; where the economic system is largely boosted by money supply from the Federal Reserve System and by « shadow banking » senseless speculation who reinvent by the day the subprime madness; and where the concentration of wealth is such that it is almost nothing more than a masquerade of democracy.
With regard to diplomatic reality, it is quite clear: After President Obama on 28 August 2013, in the final seconds, refused to retaliate against the Syrian President who had just used chemical weapons against his own people, that nobody in the world takes U.S. commitment seriously any more. On any front. And effective U.S. drone strikes carried out in Yemen and Pakistan provide additional evidence: No human involvement.
This explains many things: The drop in oil prices decided, with no fear, by Saudi Arabia against U.S. wishes and interests; the refusal of Egyptian President to buy U.S. fighter jets, though the U.S. has been Egypt’s major arms supplier for the past 50 years; the compromise accepted in Minsk, against his will, by the President of Ukraine, when he realized that he could not count on U.S. military support, despite irresponsible attempts from officials (American) in positions in the military chain of command of NATO in Europe. And last, as a blinding symbol of this lack of commitment, the absence of the U.S. President and any top U.S. officials from the march in Paris on 11 January 2015 following the attacks.
If this continues, the world will come to understand that American power is falling into a doze. The drop in the U.S. dollar will then become apparent, China will seize control of the China Sea, North Korea will push its own objectives and Japan will try to arm itself.
There is the possibility that the next president, whether Jeb Bush or Hillary Clinton (who can win only by distancing him/herself from Obama), or any other, will try to revitalize America’s role as a superpower. This will not be the first time. But it will probably be only a last-ditch effort, because it is too late: China will soon pass the United States in terms of GDP and military budget. And the American people, unlike the French, Chinese and Russian people, and many others, are no longer willing to put the lives of their soldiers at risk in a theatre of operations.
Thus, the perspective is clear: The American empire will disappear. It will not be replaced in global leadership by a rival empire, which was the case for the British Empire, but more likely, as was the case with the Roman Empire, by a multi-polar chaos in which some of its neighbors will want to take ownership of the American way of life, to make it their own, while the others organized as theocracies will fight against it because of their religious beliefs. And even if another empire managed in the end to replace the American empire as the world’s leader, it would not be a Western empire, for the first time in human history.
The west is therefore defenseless, for the first time. And nothing is more dangerous, especially for us Europeans, than seeing our enemies stop being afraid of us. It is time to realize that no one but us will ever defend our values, our way of life and our freedoms. Also, without waiting for a next U.S. President to understand perhaps the importance of being strong, and share global leadership with Europe, it is up to us Europeans, to learn to live and defend ourselves, without America.
j@attali.com
