Contrary to what they want us to believe, the crisis deepens: in the United
States, all deficits are rising; banks defaulting are worsening, and even if
Wall Street is up, its value is still 40% lower than that of October 2007.
In addition,everyone whispers within informed circles, that we should expect
many more tsunamis: on private real estate loans, on credit cards, and on
commercial real estate.
In response, the United States, in a crazy gamble, is investing money it does
not have in leading sectors. And China, in an equally bold gamble, is
abandoning all hope of an upturn in its exports to America and is investing
in a huge economic revival, 20% of its GDP in domestic infrastructure.
Europe in return, does nothing. Paralyzed by its history and its caution it
prefers to believe the crisis will solve itself. Having invested on reform
of global governance, which of course the London comedy did not give birth,
it seems now waiting for the market to bring out of its pocket a miracle
cure. Deprived of bold leaders in Brussels, the EU does not give itself any
new means to protect its banks, or to revitalize its leading sectors. 2008
and 2009 will remain as the years of European void. The euro itself will not
resist such a shock.
It’s about time for France to understand that at this pace, the worst is
almost certain: a declining real estate market, a surplus of production
capacity in key sectors, a recession in 2009, 2010 and even 2011,
unemployment will exceed 3.5 million people, the budget deficit will reach,
despite all the makeup, 8 or even 10% of GDP, unless taxes are massively
increased, which will be extremely difficult, with the presidential
elections coming, the technical and scientific elites will revolt or will
leave, disgusted by the revelation of fortunes made in finance.
We must confront a difficult reality, repeat it every day until we
understand it: If the government does not act massively, in a real
revolutionary way, recession will be there for at least ten years, it will
lead Europe and France to fall behind, forever distanced by countries that
will have understood the importance of the revolutions in progress.
Action therefore means to boost massively the industry by targeted spending
on promising sectors: health, energy, agriculture, infrastructure,
environment, new materials, softwares, nanotechnology , neuroscience,
cutting-edge services and cultural industries. And in order to do so
increase significantly the salaries of researchers, professors, doctors,
engineers, meaning all those who bring their creativity to countries. At the
expense, if necessary, of the incomes and the privileges of those who lead
them, finance them or entertain them. It’s accepting temporarily targeted
deficits to fund these expenditures of the future. It is promoting new
business models that are more mindful of the long term, and close to those
of NGOs and public services, it is to direct the world of finance toward
risk-taking in sectors based on the long term, and not toward profit for
itself.
It’s not a new recovery plan that we need, but a true awareness of the
cultural and political urgencies. And in particular a radical questioning of
the division of powers between those who create and those who finance, the
condition, once again, of our survival.