We, the French, have the art of arguing about solutions to problems not
depending on us, or on secondary issues, in order to bury better the
strategic choices within our reach, because we do not want to make them.
So today, we are fighting over immigration, forgetting that this subject has
become, de facto, since the Schengen Agreement (unless we call the Agreement
into question) of EU competence. And we are discussing the extent of the
wealth tax or the tax shield, even though they represent only a part of our
Lilliputian tax revenue. We are facing other more serious problems and their
solution is within our reach.
Thus, the public debt, which continues to grow, and the competitiveness of
the French economy which collapses. At the current rate of budgetary and
fiscal carelessness, public debt will reach 100% of GDP in 2015 at the
latest; the foreign trade deficit and that of the balance of payments, which
we never talk about, are growing at an unprecedented level never reached
before, even during the crisis of 1983: that of foreign trade is 3.5% of GDP
against 1.1% in 1983 and 0.9% in 2000. And the balance of payments deficit
which was only 0.9% in 1983 and with a surplus of 7% in 2000 now has a
record deficit of 3.6% of GDP! While Germany has a surplus of nearly 10% of
GDP in trade balance and more than 5% in balance of payments! The French
industry has never been so weak. Only the Euro is protecting us, for a time,
from a sideslip towards the abyss.
All this in an international context (economic, financial, commercial,
military, political), incredibly fragile, which will lead each nation to
fight more fiercely against all the others. Make no mistake: global economic
growth today is built on sand and can collapse at any moment, like a house
of cards, if one or the other major holders of capital begins to lose faith
in this headlong rush of rich countries into public debts; if they refuse to
fund any longer the rescue of Western banks by lending to States; and if
they give up betting any longer on a hypothetical coming out of the crisis
through the technical and social progress of the world.
France therefore must prepare for these difficult times. For this, she must
absolutely find room for maneuver. By the end of this year, she must
seriously discuss the state of the country (especially her public debt and
competitiveness) and agree on her remaining instruments to influence her
destiny; before choosing, during the campaign, the priorities to be
retained. If this serious debate takes place, France will then understand
that she will need, no matter who wins, like other countries do, to address
seriously the needs of her primary school, and deal with the training of her
workers, unemployed, and Research in companies; that she will need to raise
her taxes, consolidate her local and regional authorities, regain a culture
of innovation, give back their lustre to trades in the industry and widen
her horizons.
If this serious debate does not take place if there is no agreement by the
end of the year, on the facts and means of action, the campaign will be
reduced to a bidding war of invectives and scandals, we will listen to
promises, we will continue to live in carelessness. Until the tyranny of
facts imposes its dictatorship.