I had set the date here for October 02 because, at that date, France’s 2015 budget was to be disclosed, and the bulk of the proposed reform measures necessary to ensure the country’s recovery were to be initiated.
Are we finally on the right track? Can we still hope that this five-year period will help the country’s recovery?
Everything was in place hopefully in order to enable me to answer positively these questions: A President finally aware of the situation and no longer under the illusion that global and European growth would bring France to the top; a Prime Minister who has decided to take action without seeking to please neither the President nor pressure groups; a competent Minister of the Economy prepared for reforms to be implemented and finally a reduced but unified majority in parliament.
Indeed, some reforms have been undertaken, particularly on housing, morals, and control over public spending.
However, these are inadequate. By far. The 2015 budget is almost as misleading as were its predecessors for 20 years: Government expenditures are still increasing while repeating injustices; GDP growth, on which revenues are based, is overvalued; the deficit is therefore understated: At the current pace, 2015 will end with a GDP growth below 1%, deficits in excess of 5%, unemployment levels higher than current levels and public debt above 100% of GDP. And the rare savings made were mostly from cutting back on investment whereas little has been done to address seriously the problem of wasteful citadels in the State, social security, local authorities and public agencies.
With regard to reforms, very few were launched. Let alone announced. Unless there is a wake-up call, which is unlikely, none of these reforms will henceforth take place with 2 years to go before the beginning of the forthcoming Presidential campaign: The reform of the disastrous housing law is barely touched upon; the funding of construction remains opaque and is being squandered. The law announced on Sunday work and minimum thresholds is long in coming. The announced reform of local authorities does not address what is essential (the grouping of communes, the suppression of departments, the clear definition of competences). There is nothing on the horizon to suggest the calling into question of the scandalous situation of continuing education, which has just been compounded by a new law.
Worse still, the « parity principle » (paritarisme- eg joint social partner management of various bodies) is in no way being called into question, having become a higher form of squandering, corporatism and conservatism, negation of general interest, that affect voters and workers.
Therefore, a very difficult year in 2015 can be expected, perhaps aggravated by distrust of markets, making government debt more costly. A further tax increase can be expected in 2016, including VAT, decision which will be made hurriedly and not to modernize the tax system. Finally, facing the growing unpopularity of those in power, the final demise of reforms that have been subject to repeated delays can be expected. Unless we are surprised at last by those who are in power, through both suicidal and salutary courage. I still want to believe it, because I cannot resign myself to the suicide of my country.
And since the Right, embroiled in internal affairs and fighting, is determined not to design a coherent and ambitious program, and that the extreme parties, from Left to Right, only dream of turning France into another North Korea, I say it with a sad heart: For many years to come, no longer expect anything from politicians.
But I also say that with hope: For thus now is the time for all of us to realize that no one will decide for us, that no one will give us a job. It is time to rely only on ourselves. And concern ourselves with politics, by ensuring that our leaders wake up and new leaders emerge, with programs that are ambitious and with common sense, capable of bringing France to the top. It is possible. A country as wealthy and structured as France is not lost yet. Provided we understand our immense solitude. And make our impatience the driving force of a revolt. For oneself. Therefore, for all.
j@attali.com