The mood of today’s France seems very difficult to discern. In fact, it is taking shape with precision, in hollow, through the French people response to the most significant events of recent days: the country appears more shocked than ever by a crime rate that has not increased though. They clearly do not want any meddling in the Syrian crisis. For them nothing is more shocking than the monthly unemployment statistics, which does not give the government announcing them a very good name. On the other hand, the pension reform, very modest, was rather positively received by the French. And the focus was more on the victories of French players in tennis than their defeats in soccer or athletics. Finally, reading the most recent publications we are reminded that the country is one of the richest in the world, with a net fortune seven times that of its annual production.
One can then deduce the current French mood: the whole country clearly appears more interested in positive news than bad ones and has a grudge against those in power when they are forced to make bad announcements. It is equally delighted when explanations given show that the country can do without reforms.
Naturally, this French mood is not the mood of all French: some are despairing of a country which does not allow them to move forward and which is not providing a future for their children; they rebel against the impossibility of crossing the glass ceiling that prevents them from succeeding and which leaves the greater part of power, cultural heritage and financial wealth to heirs.
In some way it is as if the country was clearly and increasingly divided into three groups:
the first contains entrepreneurs of all kinds (management, researchers, business leaders, teachers, doctors, nurses, workers, or any others), who have ambitious projects for them and their families and who, for that purpose, are willing to take risks. A small part of them continues to make their dreams to serve a professional project in France and wants the country to remain, or become again, powerful, with an influential culture; a much larger part of them, young or not, rich or not, no longer link their destiny to that of the nation and are increasingly considering leaving the country with an entrepreneurial spirit to achieve their personal and family dreams.
A second group, by far the largest, contains those who form the French mood. They are, in general for honorable reasons, rather happy about their situations, even modest, otherwise they are resigned without hope of seeing their situation improve; and especially concerned not to see it deteriorate. Those stick to privileges and private incomes, even tiny ones. They are afraid of any change, for themselves, as well as for others. Politically, they go from one political party to another, towards the one promising them to best protect their interests and benefits.
A third group is made of another portion of the more enterprising: those who want to succeed without setting strict moral limits; those make the choice of the black economy or even of criminality. There are growing in numbers.
If in such a context those in power rely on surveys to set their course, they will let the nation sink slowly in a tender and comfortable decline, in a world where others are choosing to adapt constantly to changes.
In such a country, a revolution is less likely, at least as long as those that would benefit here can choose to leave it, or sink into illegality. It will likely not return until the country, deprived of those who could have dared that change, will see its purchasing power and the value of its finances drop so significantly that even the most conservative will no longer be able to believe that the status quo is permanently tenable. The extreme parties, bidding their time, will be the great beneficiaries.
Of course we can still avoid it. For this, four fights have priority: make the silent majority realize that conservatism will not permanently protect their tiny privileges; do everything so that those who want to change this country find a prospect of reward if they stay here; attract foreign elites so they come to France, to feed the forces of change; and finally channel into legal activities the immense energies, too often desperate, of inner-city youth.
Listening to the current discussions, in the majority and the opposition, we are far from it.