Ten years after the bankruptcy of the global financial services firm, Lehman Brothers, which was a key event that marked the beginning of the financial crisis, the question remains whether the world has learned the lessons of the financial crisis?
Yes, in part. Firstly, because Western banks are not as fragile as they were back then, having been forced to hold much larger reserves today. And also, due to very lax fiscal policies and very low interest rates, global growth seems to have returned (except in some countries, including France).
Nothing, however, is really settled yet. The United States is pursuing a financial policy that is crazier than ever. Elsewhere, in the world, businesses, individuals and governments have unprecedented debt ratios. And if banks are more cautious than they were prior to 2007, other investors have replaced them in taking risks, and they have made considerable profits for now. Moreover, while in 2008, extraordinary coordination efforts by key leaders were immediately implemented, we’ve witnessed much more selfish postures today, which can only make collective action more difficult if it became necessary to face new financial tremors.
And, such financial tremors will eventually occur. In fact, the world’s economic and social edifices are more fragile than ever and have begun to reveal its cracks. The stock prices of some large companies are more and more volatile; iconic companies are having more and more difficulty raising finance.
Furthermore, there are two new concerns that were virtually absent from the public debate ten years ago: On the one hand, there is more awareness with respect to the extraordinary worsening of the concentration of wealth in a very small number of hands. On the other hand, the debate has moved widely from the economic crisis to the ecological crisis.
However, unless there is radical societal change, the resolution of these problems is antithetical: in order to reduce debts and unemployment, more growth is needed; however, in the current state of power relations and the means of production, growth aggravates the concentration of wealth and amplifies emissions of greenhouse gases.
In order to solve all these problems all at once, we would have to change our social and political organization deeply and consider the long-term issues. Or, unless we transform the planet into a juxtaposition of North Korea, the only way to solve these problems would be to do it on a global scale.
It is urgent that we become aware of these issues: we do not need less globalization, but rather more globalization. Not less Europe but more Europe. A political globalization, based on global fiscal policy harmonization and rigorous ecological standards for all, which would impose itself on the markets. A more political Europe, founded on new solidarity in terms of defence, security, social justice and the environment. And that, again, would impose itself on the Europe of competition, which is the true destroyer of European industry and research.
We are very far away from all of this. Of all the fallouts of the collapse of Lehman Brothers, it is undoubtedly the most disturbing: the world is fragmenting itself when it should be coming together.
The richest will be the only beneficiaries: they always find a way to cope. The weakest will be the victims: after having once again applauded nationalist and xenophobic nonsense from the far-left wing or the far-right wing, they will then understand the disaster that this will lead them to.
Too early? Too late? No one knows yet.
j@attali.com