Today, If there are countries put forward as a model, for different reasons, it is indeed countries like Sweden and Turkey. Sweden for having the best social model in the world, for over half a century and for having reformed remarkably its public administration in 1993. And Turkey for having succeeded in achieving the most extraordinary modernization and the strongest growth in the Muslim world, within democracy, and with no public debt. Both for having succeeded in weathering the economic downturn of 2008.
And yet, both are now caught in the storm of suburban riots.
In Istanbul, a protest triggered after a decision to uproot 600 trees in a public park, with the plan of real estate developers to create a concrete commercial zone, and build a replica of military barracks from the Ottoman Empire to house a cultural centre, near Taksim Square has led, after violent repression, to the calling into question of the regime throughout the country, protesting against urbanization policies (construction of an airport which could become the largest in the world in terms of annual number of passengers; a third bridge over the Bosphorus; the giant mosque of Camlica), in a big sprawling city where neighborhoods lack everything, like many cities and villages in the east of the country. And, then more generally, against Mr. Erdogan’s government, accused of authoritarian excesses and the instrumental use of religion, disregarding secularism; against the mayor of Ankara asking citizens to « adopt a behavior consistent with moral values » ; and against attempts to change the constitution, which would allow Erdogan to become president of the republic. One discovers that the Turkish miracle is very fragile, that unemployment is rising, that the country is no longer sustainable for a large part of the population and that disorderly economic growth is creating frustrations of all kinds.
In Husby, a district in Rinkeby-Kista borough, Stockholm, capital of the country that is supposed to have been the most successful with the social integration of various social classes, riots have started and have indeed spread to other cities (including Uppsala and Örebro), after an old man was shot by the police, after he allegedly threatened them with a knife. Public facilities were vandalized, vehicles burned. And there, we realize that neighbourhoods that were impacted were inhabited by two-thirds of foreigners accounting for 15% of the Swedish population, including many Muslims. And that if Sweden is still part of the 10 most egalitarian OECD member states, it is the OECD country where the income gap is increasing faster: relative poverty has increased from 4% of the population in 1995 to 9% today, causing Sweden to slide from 1st position to 14th position. In addition, real estate prices have more than quadrupled over the past 15 years; household debt now represents more than 1.7 times their disposable income. Private debt (households and non-financial companies) has reached 255% of Swedish GDP. And households are taking on more debt on average over 140 years …
Apparently, in both cases, countries apparently seen as models, are faced, in inversed situations, with the problem of the modernization of Islam. Beyond this, the two real underlying problems, in both cases, have to do with urbanization, and education, becoming increasingly unfair. Entire cities are slums and areas where anarchy reigns along with no employment. Entire classes no longer have access to the bare minimum of schooling.
Two problems that are not specific to Sweden and Turkey, and of which Great Britain, the United States, Germany, and France, among others, are the victims, and they would therefore be well advised to concern themselves with these issues, before some events of the same kind come as a reminder.
j@attali.com