In order to understand where a nation is going, economic projections are generally used, those of the GDP essentially, and much uncertainty exists as to its likely value. Many other parameters will tell more about the future of a country than just virtual statistics. And among them, three fields, three areas of activity, three productions, that I always study when I try to understand where a nation is going: demography, food and music.
One refers to the essence of life, the other to food for the body, and the last to food for the mind.
Demography tells us all about the relationships between generations, family structures, and gender relations; it tells us about the size of a nation, its dynamics, its ability to regenerate. Its evolution is fairly easy to predict, as well as its impact on political and ideological power relationships.
Food tells us all about the major invariants of a nation: the diversity in soil conditions and landscapes; in animals and plants; the way women think about their relationships to the world and still how their way of life is appreciated by the rest of the world.
Music tells us all about its creativity, its joie de vivre, its revolt, its sense of transcendence and beauty, the relationships between the people and the elites and of its ability to fire the imagination of the rest of the world.
The ways in which these three productions are nourished by elements which came from elsewhere, and cross borders, and the ethnic or cultural diversity that they are capable of, make a big statement about the futures of these peoples: In particular, I do not believe in the future of nations with an ageing population, and/or whose food is boring and/or whose music is only audible in their land and not by other nations.
Of course, for music as for food, there are no objective criteria, and we must stay away from a Western-centric type of vision. Nevertheless : universality is an objective reality.
Very few nations have had at the same time a young population, their food universally valued, and their music played all over the world. This was the case, all proportions guarded, in certain periods of history, of the Greeks, Romans, Venetians, French, British or Americans. The United States, though it still has youth and music, only creates food known as junk food for universal use.
Some countries meet two of these requirements. This is the case (music and youth) for the United States, Senegal, Brazil, Cuba, Jamaica; and this is also the case (youth and food) for India, France, Morocco, Thailand; and finally this is the case (music and food) for Italy.
Others have only one, which is food (China and Japan), youth (Turkey or Indonesia) or music (Great Britain).
Others, in my opinion, have none such as Germany, Russia and Korea.
I will infer fairly readily only some unintended consequences. For example:
France no longer has great music since it repressed all its popular cultures, which it feared would call into question its unity; on the contrary, its food has managed to survive, because it is linked to the irrepressible diversity of landscapes and climates. Its music, however, is not far from being universal, more through its producers and DJs, than its composers. More generally, it tells us that a successful decentralization would be a condition for a return of French creativity and economic growth.
China, as aptly summed up by the special character of its music, never had any universalist ambition, and will be kept up, because of its demography, to redirect its investments internally. Therefore China will not be an opponent against the United States for world domination.
As for the United States, it will be able to maintain or regain its Imperium if it can revitalize its territories, protect its environment and return to a diversified agriculture.
India, if it is able to export its music, making it more audible to the rest of the world, and if it is better able to formulate its ideologies according to what the rest of the world can hear, could become a planetary force.
Until Africa (when it will have succeeded in producing an abundant and varied food on its vast cultivable lands, which 4/5 today are lands that had been set aside), becomes the leading world power.
j@attali.com