A sentenced person holds on to any hope of reduction of their sentence. A jilted lover watches for the slightest sign of hope that could mean the return of his beloved. A patient clings to the slightest sign of remission.
Peoples face a similar situation, they who dislike so much scary predictions to the point of mocking the Cassandras, whenever they can catch them red-handed for being overly pessimistic.
I can feel the rise of such an attitude today in France, at least in some circles. Because three worrisome predictions did not materialize:
1. Demonstrations that took place on 1st and May 5, did not lead to a tidal wave overwhelming those in power.
2. Public debt is no longer a major concern since the European Commission’s decision to give France two more years to meet the EU deficit target of three percent and that interest rates have become so low that, despite the growth in the debt burden, its repayment has become a lighter burden.
3. The French automotive industry demonstrates that it is not lost since Toyota and Renault have now announced their decision to take steps to produce in France, in Onnaing for one, and Filins for the other, to the world market, very large series models, Yaris and the Nissan Micra, produced with an automation that is second to none in the world and available at perfectly competitive prices.
Political power might conclude that the worst is over and that once more, the natural change of society will be a great substitute for the voluntary reform of the state. It could even be encouraged soon with fewer bad results in the polls, and indeed it would be difficult to be lower in the polls.
And yet, there would be nothing worse today than too much good news, which would lead to complacency.
And boasting about it, would be the worst service we can render to the country.
In reality, these disasters once again avoided, only show that all is not lost, in the fierce global competition, and there is only a need to intensify efforts. Because even these three issues remain relevant topics:
1. Political desperation is growing in a country where one in three young people (and amongst the poorest every second young person) is unemployed, and where jobs are increasingly reserved for the sons of the wealthy, of executives and teachers.
2. Public debt will continue to grow: in some European countries it even increases by 20 percentage points of GDP in one year. And in France, without immediate massive action, it can only keep increasing. The European Commission, whose cowardice is matched only by its incompetence, didn’t really do any favor to the country by blessing its laxness and will change its mind when markets
will worry again in the future.
3. The Justice of the Peace of competitiveness, a major source of employment, is the external trade balance; and it is condemning France more severely every year.
Lowering one’s guard would be the worst attitude; in fact, these good news must be taken for what they are: incentives not to give up, to act. Quickly. Seriously.
By driving away the word « procrastination » in what we say. Recognizing that the only spring that matters is the one that we made bloom.
j@attali.com