There aren’t many laws in political science. Very few studies and analyses can explain why a particular social group, town or village votes the way it does. There are so many parameters that even the most seasoned political scientists give up. In particular, they are helpless when it comes to explaining why, in the United States, one county is fanatical about Trump and another, not far away, would do anything to have him beaten. Similarly, despite thousands of pages written, not least by some very great geographers, there is no convincing theory explaining why, in France, the two extreme parties, LFI and the RN, are rising in parallel to the detriment of the Republican or Social Democratic parties. And why, in so many other democracies, identitarian parties are growing strongly.
However, one theory does seem to have a certain validity. It enables us to predict electoral trends and to act on them.
In short, far-right parties are gaining ground in depopulating towns and villages, where the middle and working classes are losing access to public services and welfare. Meanwhile, far-left movements are gaining ground in overpopulated suburbs, where working-class and intellectual populations do not have access to the same services as those living in privileged inner-city neighborhoods. What these towns and neighborhoods have in common is that they are inhabited by populations with a sense of declassification: in the first case, because they are losing services they previously had; and in the second, because they have never had access to the services to which they believe they are legitimately entitled. The former live in villages and towns in systemic decline. The latter live in overcrowded suburbs and unbalanced urban growth.
Only cities and countries that manage to maintain a balanced distribution of public services, security, health care, education, social activities, sports facilities, parks and gardens between all neighborhoods, avoid falling into the hands of extremist parties.
It’s not easy. It doesn’t happen overnight. It doesn’t just depend on the will of municipalities, which are subject to the goodwill of national authorities, the existence or disappearance of job-creating businesses, the demographic vitality of the region and many other parameters.
In the United States, for example, Democratic cities became Republican when they lost their factories, and suburbs became radical when they were deprived of the resources of city centers. They become moderate Democrats again when they attract jobs, and organize harmonious, socially-balanced development of the various rehabilitated neighborhoods. This is the case for some towns in the North-East.
In France, medium-sized towns, most of them sub-prefectures, are known to swing over to the Rassemblement National when the population and public services that a middle class can rightly claim disappear. Working-class suburbs swing to the extreme left when the population grows without the public services to keep pace.
In the absence of urban planning, most cities will be either rapidly depopulating or becoming overcrowded. Without the means to restore balance. In both cases, one of the extremes will come to power.
If we want to avoid democracies being reduced to a confrontation between extreme parties, we need to attach the utmost importance to urban policy, doing everything we can to avoid the desertification of some areas and the overcrowding of others. This requires long-term action. With a coherent vision of history, geography, sociology, urban planning, ecology, industry, services and urban life. Few cities can serve as models. Except, as always, a few northern European cities, from Amsterdam to Vienna, from Oslo to Zurich; and a few American, Australian and Japanese cities.
It is in the revitalization of forgotten towns and villages, and the harmonious development of overcrowded suburbs and neighborhoods, that the real answer to the dangers threatening democracy lies. To put it another way: it’s in the municipal elections that the presidential elections will be played out.
j@attali.com
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